25th January 2022

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 25th Jan 2022

Musings…….


Ukraine 


So what actually is Russia’s problem with Ukraine ? To know this we must go back a bit into History, and we must know that Ukraine was a part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic. Later in 1991 it broke away as the USSR broke up and gained independence in 1991. 


Since then Ukraine has been trying to shed its Russian imperial legacy and the current issue is a continuation of this of simply put. 


In 2014 when then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych decided to reject an association agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow, it led to mass protests and led to his removal. 

Then Russia had responded to the rebuttal by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and supporting a separatist rebellion that broke out in Donbas - East Ukraine.


Ukrainian separatists hold, as we speak, the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk both bordering Russia. 


Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly accused Ukraine and its aspirations of joining NATO and its members plans to setup military training centres in Ukraine.


Ukraine’s admission to NATO would require, according to its law, unanimous approval of 30 member states. 

However Putin does not want NATO in its Eastern border. 


Russia could invade Ukraine- it is a possibility. The West could react in numerous ways to deter Russia which includes sending troops to help Ukraine. 


They could cut off Russia from SWIFT financial system which moves money from bank to bank around the globe, which can be devastating for Russia. 

This move will cut off Russia from most international transactions including oil and gas production which accounts for 40% of Russian revenue.  


Russia has already amassed 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and has sent troops to Belarus bordering both Russia and Ukraine. 


Russia’s military aggression in Donbas in 2014 and its annexation of Crimea has galvanised public support for the west in Ukraine. 

Ukrainian President since 2019 Volodymyr Zelensky came to power by campaigning for a platform against corruption, economic renewal and peace in the Donbas region. He would be under pressure due to public support,  to shake hands with the west. 


Putin on the other hand, views Ukraine as part of Russia’s “ sphere of influence” - a territory rather than an independent state. 

We have before us the example of Belarus where Putin openly supported its President Alexander Lukashenko when a mass protest broke out in Minsk, its capital and crushed the protests without repercussions. 


Putin could also be using Ukraine as a leverage point against the West for lifting sanctions. 


Getting back to a bit of history, Russia by annexing Crimea and support for Donbas conflict, had violated the Budapest Memorandum Security Assurances for Ukraine pact 1994 signed by US, UK and Russia to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for its commitment to give up its nuclear arsenal. 


The US acting like an International policeman is not new. We have seen it get involved and fail miserable in the Middle East, leaving poverty and bloodshed behind. Amongst its waning power, in lieu of growing Chinese influence in the World, US may see this as a chance to her back its lost glory. 


However, the cost to Russia of attacking Ukraine would outweigh the benefits. 


Food for Thought…….


RC 


rohitchennithala.blogspot.com 

rohitchennithala.home.blog

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