3rd September 2021

 Musings…….

Afghanistan 

Why no one has absolute power in Afghanistan 

Since the meek and disgusting withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan and the subsequent swift capture of power in majority of provinces, including Kabul by the Taliban, is the world seeing a major power shift ? 

Also why does no one have absolute power in Adghanistan ? 

Well the answer to this seems to be in the varied Ethnolinguistic groups in Afghanistan. Added to this is the topography and the challenge to guard its large borders with Iran, Pakistan, PoK, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and a small patch of land with China. 

The Demography of Afghanistan population is as follows - 

- [ ] Pashtun (42%) - The Pashtuns majorly occupy the Eastern and Western Afghanistan, the Paghman valley, Badakhshan and Herat. 

Major Pashtun leaders include Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Gul Agha Sherzai and Abdul Rab Sayyaf. All Pashtun leaders have good relations with Pakistan apparently and not so cordial with India. 

- [ ] Tajik ( 27% ) - The Tajiks majorly occupy Balkh, North Afghanistan Herat and Panjshir valley. 

Ahmad Massoud deserves special mention here. He is a 32 year old heir to Northern Alliance hero Ahmed Shah Massoud who was killed by Al- Qaida in 2001.  Neither the Taliban nor the Soviets have been able to breach the Panjshir valley and several ex Afghan security forces have joined Massoud. 

Mohammad Atta Noor is another major Tajik leader who has fought the Soviets and the Taliban previously. He controls local businesses, real estate and alleged drug trafficking networks for sourcing funds. He met External Affairs Minister Jaishankar in 2020 and wanted India to play bigger role in Kabul- Taliban talks. 

Another Tajik leader is Ismael Khan, previously minister in Karzai government and a critic of Ghani government, he fought the Taliban post 9-11. He has close ties with Iran and was part of Northern Alliance. 

- [ ] Hazara ( 9% ) - mainly concentrated in Behzud, Maidan Wardak Province in East Afghanistan, Wardak and Ghazni 

Abdul Ghani Alipore is a major Shia Hazara leader of Hizb-e-Wahadat, which is an anti- Taliban and anti- Govt militia group founded in 2014. 

Karim Khalili is a Hazara leader previously Second VP from 2004-2014. He is close to Iran and part of a major opposition to Taliban. 

- [ ] Uzbek (8%) - influence in Jowzjan and pockets in Balkh, Faryab and Samangan in North Afghanistan 

Abdul Rashid Dostum is a major Uzbek leader with close ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdorgan and to Russia. He is friends with India and in 1992 had helped Indian diplomats to escape and fly out of Mazar-i- Sharif. He is hostile to Taliban and Pakistan.  

- [ ] Others (14%) 

Now we know why Afghanistan is so difficult to control. There is no single unifying factor among Afghanis and there is animosity between different ethnolinguistic sects. 

The Imperial British famously failed in the 1800s to take control of the country and were humiliated in defeat. 

In 1970s another world power, Soviet Russia tried and failed to control Afghanistan, again retreating in humiliation. 

Now then superpower, USA has tried to bring their so called “ western” influence into Afghanis and have failed, retreating humiliatingly. 

China, Russia and Pakistan has given their full support to the newly occupied Taliban and its future government. 

What remains to be seen is with Americas dwindling influence and power, are we seeing a new world power centre in the making ( China-Russia- Pakistan axis ). 

Among all this mayhem Taliban has given supporting statements for an independent Kashmir ! Now the ball is in India’s court, and it remains to be seen whether Indian diplomacy would save the day, in an otherwise terrible situation for India. 

Food for Thought…….