6th July 2020

Musings.......

Pandemic that changed life as we know it 

Dr. Micheal Ryan, the WHO Emergencies Chief gave a significant  statement recently - “ This virus may never go away”  , referring to the Coronavirus pandemic which may become Endemic as for example the Chickenpox virus or the HIV. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy report of University of Minnesota says the the virus may last 2 years ! 

According to a research paper from California University, the virus has the propensity to travel upto 20 meters ! 

• Cold climate and moisture can increase the virility threefold ! 

I had not given serious thought to the word “novel” in n-Cov up until now.  That no human has immunity against this virus makes this a very serious problem. 

The IMF reports that the Global GDP growth would reduce from 2.9% to 1.6% in 2020. It has to be noted that there was falling growth since 2018-19 period. 

Public life as we know it has grinded to a hault. Business has slowed down. 

The Global travel industry including Airlines, Cruise, hotels have suffered. 

The global supply chain and industry has been disrupted. The WTO has estimated a 32% fall in trade this year alone.  

The UN Sustainable Development goal targets by 2030 would be severely affected. 

UNCTAD report includes India in the 15 most affected countries of the world. 

This could well become one of the largest economic catastrophe since World War II.  

Media Mogul Rupert Murdoch has closed close to 100 Newspapers and Journals in Australia and are going digital due to lack of advertisements and funds. 

Data from previous pandemics have shown that quarantine seriously affects mental health. 

A recent Reuters interview with Doctors and Nurses and the UN has reiterated that there could well be a Global Mental Health Crisis. 

Isolation, poverty, anxiety, numbness, irritability, panic, insomnia, and nightmares could lead to psychological distress. 

People are distressed about physical isolation, afraid of contracting infection, dying, losing family members and are insecure of their future. 

India and Coronavirus 

The National Stastistical Office (NSO) reports that 80% of the Unorganised sector would face unemployment and cannot claim any compensations next case of layoffs( total of 47.12 crores out of which 24.21 crore are self-employed). 

Also, out of the 45-50 lakh IT professionals and 10-12 lakh in smaller firms an estimated 1.5 Lakh would lose their jobs according to Moneycontrol. 

Unemployment in India rose from 6.7% to 29% from 15th March to 19th April ! An estimated job loss of 1.2 crores ! 

An estimated 120 million migrant labourers, who work for daily wages would bear the brunt of the crisis. 

Coronavirus and Kerala. 

Kerala Planning Board Report on the 40 day lockdown says that there is an estimated 80,000 crore loss to the state. ( April-June 2020 ) Lack of remittances from abroad would aggravate the crisis. Tax and non-tax revenues would reduce. 

Kerala could well go into negative growth as all sectors including agriculture, industry, agri labour, hospitality sector and self employed sector would be affected. 

More than a 100 vaccines are in various stages of development in the World, with only a few into the third stage of trial. 

According to the National Institute of Health (NIH) which has funded a trial in the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle, caution that it may take 12-18 months before the vaccine reaches the market and explain that the main purpose of this current trial is to make sure there are no serious side effects. 

CEO of a major Pharma company Pfizer has claimed that a Covid-19 vaccine could be ready by end of October, this year. 

In the meantime, 70 institutes from 30 countries have launched “Covid-19” Clinical Research Coalition. 

Work From Home 

An online survey of New Delhi based Climante Trends in partnership with UK based YouGov has found that the Urban Working Professionals across 10 cities in India- Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Pune and Surat - would like to continue working from home even after lockdown. 

NSSO and PLFS( Periodic Labour Force Survey) on March 31 suggested that over 136 million non-agricultural jobs are at immediate risk. Workers without formal employment contract, casual labourers, those who work in small companies, and the self employed are the most vulnerable. 

A study by UN in 2017 had reported higher levels of stress from those working from home than from on site. 

While 41% respondents working from home considered themselves highly stressed, only 25% working on site considered themselves highly stressed. 

We know that recently, Twitter made all its employees to work from home. 

Advantages of working from home would include reduced infrastructure cost for Companies, saved cost can be meted our to the employees, reduced travel cost and travel hassles. This could reduce the need for taking frequent holidays and abstention. It would increase the productivity and negate the need for big buildings for office space. 

IBM saved about 100 million annually on office snacks. Office politics, unnecessary chitchat can be avoided and employees would be happier in familiar surroundings. 

The other side of work from home could include raised electricity bills, phone bill and internet charges, increased workload. 

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said recently “ Video calls cannot replace in-person meeting”. 

Working from home permanently would endanger Social Interactions and mental health. 

Online Education 

Though a novel concept, Online education would create a digital divide in a developing country like India. 

Digital literacy is not uniform and widespread. 

In India, the Internet penetration is only 25.3%, while in cities this is 98%. Almost 60 crore people out of the 80 crore in villages lack Internet facilities. 

In Kerala, out of the 44.76 lakh school going kids, 5.98% i.e 2.61 Lakh school kids do not own a smart phone or television. 

In the tribal district of Wayanad 60% and in capital district of Thiruvananthapuram 15% school kids lack smartphones and internet facilities. 

The digital divide is there for everyone to see. 

Hence making education completely online would go against the ideals of equity and would not be advisable. 

Another debate is whether increased screen time helps students learn or if it impedes their progress. While Maharashtra has banned online classes from pre primary to Class II, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh have extended the  ban till Class V. 

We can safely say that the world around us is changing, and changing fast. 

What started our as a 21 day lockdown could well become the new normal for many and we may have to live with precautions for a long time to come. 

Lifestyle modifications and changes will be the norm and humans ability to adapt and survive would be tested to its limits. 

Food for Thought 

RC