17th March 2020
Musings.......
No one waiting for 2020 would have realised the world would be facing something so drastic as the COVID-19, previously called the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (nCOV-2019).
Starting as an outbreak in Wuhan, the capital city of Central China’s Hubei Province, the viral zoonotic disease has spread its eagle wings into an epidemic at first and then into a pandemic engulfing the whole of earth around it.
An outbreak is a sudden rise in the number of cases of a disease. It may occur in a community or geographical area or may affect several countries. It may last for a few days, weeks or for several years. Some outbreaks like influenza are expected each year. Sometimes a single case of an infectious disease can be considered an outbreak such as if the disease is rare - like botulism or if it has serious public health implications- like Anthrax.
An epidemic occurs when an infectious disease spreads rapidly to many people. An example would be the 2003 SARS - severe acute respiratory syndrome that took the life of more than 800 people worldwide.
WHO recently classified COVID-19 as a pandemic. A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. It differs from epidemic in -
- [ ] Affects a wider geographical area, often worldwide
- [ ] Infects a greater number of people than an epidemic
- [ ] Is often caused by a new virus or a strain of virus that has not circulated among people for a long time. Humans usually have no immunity against it and the virus can spread quickly from person- to person worldwide.
- [ ] Causes much higher number of deaths than epidemics
- [ ] Often creates social disruptions, economic loss and general hardships.
Some examples of pandemic would be - Influenza (flu) pandemic of 1918-19 killing 20-40 million people. 2002 H1 N1 is a more recent global pandemic.
Coming back to the epicentre of the disease - Wuhan. It is one of the most populous city in Central China with a population of over 11 million. It was the Capital of China during the left wing Kuomintang Government of 1937 and served as wartime capital during the Second Sino- Japanese War.
The Huanan Seafood market cluster is now widely considered the origin of COVID19 though it is not confirmed.
Initial cases reported were all one way or the other connected with visits to the seafood market.
However, China being China, the authorities initially tried to hide the truth. Quoting from the Washington Post Article- The state run country did what it does best , hide information. The local officials initially decided to hide the cases from Beijing so that annual Communist party meetings could be held without fuss.
Then the local officials silenced whistleblowers. The punishment meted our to Dr. Li Wenliang who eventually died of the same virus, had a chilling effect on other doctors. He had first indicated about local transmission.
Local officials kept the expert groups in the dark.
Lesson from China is the central- local tensions and bureaucratic shortfalls combined with feigned compliance, distortion and subterfuge- meant that along with China the whole world is paying a huge price for these initial delays.
I do now wish to indulge In a Blame game as I am not even sure how my government in India would have handled the situation any better.
Bill Gates through an article in the New England Journal Of Medicine explicitly explains why the COVID19 is such a threat. He sites two reasons-
- [ ] First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The case fatality risk is around 1% - many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza.
- [ ] Secondly, it is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others - an exponential rate of increase. There is also evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are mildly ill or even presymptomatic.
All this means COVID19 would be much harder to contain than say Middle East respiratory syndrome(MERS) or SARS.
BILL GATES goes on to enumerate certain steps that should be taken -
- [ ] National, State and local governments and public health agencies has to work hand in hand to slow the spread.
- [ ] Donor governments could help low and middle income countries( LMICs) prepare for the pandemic.
Finally, governments and industry has to come to an agreement during a pandemic- vaccines and antivirals can’t simply be sold to the highest bidder. They should be available and affordable for the people who are at the heart of the outbreak and in greatest need.
This 28th February article from Bill Gates comes in the backdrop of US President Trumps statement that he would prefer vaccine only for the American Citizens !
World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines on Basic Protective Measures against COVID19-
- [ ] Wash hands frequently
- [ ] Maintain social distancing- maintain at least 1 metre distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
- [ ] Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth
- [ ] Practice respiratory hygiene- like covering nose and mouth while sneezing or coughing and disposing off tissue immediately.
- [ ] Seek medical advise early - if symptomatic with fever, cough and breathing difficulty.
- [ ] Stay informed and keep away from fake news.
Protection measures - for persons who are in or recently visited ( 14 days ) areas where COVID19 is spreading -
- [ ] Stay at home if you begin to feel unwell or even mild symptoms
- [ ] If you develop fever, cough and breathing difficulty seek medical advice immediately.
Seek real information and do not fall for fake news. There is a lot of misinformation floating around in the Internet.
The website www.who.int would suffice for queries.
Some immune boosting methods including Vitamin C rich diets and ample sunlight and exercise have been cited to help curb infection spread.
The importance of Personal hygiene including hand washing and social distancing cannot be overemphasised.
The COVID19 has shown us how fragile the human species is and it is time for introspection. We have put a man on the moon and sent a probe to the Sun, but are struggling to find a cure for a viral disease affecting lives!
It is too early to talk about lessons learnt as we are right in the middle of the pandemic.
One thing that governments all over the world should think of in the middle of the biggest crisis of the millennium so far, is the amount of money that Governments spent on healthcare and social welfare.
If the human race is to survive for long - it is imperative that governments realise the importance of spending on medical research and welfare rather than dreaming of weaponising and colonising space !
Food for thought.......
RC
No one waiting for 2020 would have realised the world would be facing something so drastic as the COVID-19, previously called the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (nCOV-2019).
Starting as an outbreak in Wuhan, the capital city of Central China’s Hubei Province, the viral zoonotic disease has spread its eagle wings into an epidemic at first and then into a pandemic engulfing the whole of earth around it.
An outbreak is a sudden rise in the number of cases of a disease. It may occur in a community or geographical area or may affect several countries. It may last for a few days, weeks or for several years. Some outbreaks like influenza are expected each year. Sometimes a single case of an infectious disease can be considered an outbreak such as if the disease is rare - like botulism or if it has serious public health implications- like Anthrax.
An epidemic occurs when an infectious disease spreads rapidly to many people. An example would be the 2003 SARS - severe acute respiratory syndrome that took the life of more than 800 people worldwide.
WHO recently classified COVID-19 as a pandemic. A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. It differs from epidemic in -
- [ ] Affects a wider geographical area, often worldwide
- [ ] Infects a greater number of people than an epidemic
- [ ] Is often caused by a new virus or a strain of virus that has not circulated among people for a long time. Humans usually have no immunity against it and the virus can spread quickly from person- to person worldwide.
- [ ] Causes much higher number of deaths than epidemics
- [ ] Often creates social disruptions, economic loss and general hardships.
Some examples of pandemic would be - Influenza (flu) pandemic of 1918-19 killing 20-40 million people. 2002 H1 N1 is a more recent global pandemic.
Coming back to the epicentre of the disease - Wuhan. It is one of the most populous city in Central China with a population of over 11 million. It was the Capital of China during the left wing Kuomintang Government of 1937 and served as wartime capital during the Second Sino- Japanese War.
The Huanan Seafood market cluster is now widely considered the origin of COVID19 though it is not confirmed.
Initial cases reported were all one way or the other connected with visits to the seafood market.
However, China being China, the authorities initially tried to hide the truth. Quoting from the Washington Post Article- The state run country did what it does best , hide information. The local officials initially decided to hide the cases from Beijing so that annual Communist party meetings could be held without fuss.
Then the local officials silenced whistleblowers. The punishment meted our to Dr. Li Wenliang who eventually died of the same virus, had a chilling effect on other doctors. He had first indicated about local transmission.
Local officials kept the expert groups in the dark.
Lesson from China is the central- local tensions and bureaucratic shortfalls combined with feigned compliance, distortion and subterfuge- meant that along with China the whole world is paying a huge price for these initial delays.
I do now wish to indulge In a Blame game as I am not even sure how my government in India would have handled the situation any better.
Bill Gates through an article in the New England Journal Of Medicine explicitly explains why the COVID19 is such a threat. He sites two reasons-
- [ ] First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The case fatality risk is around 1% - many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza.
- [ ] Secondly, it is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others - an exponential rate of increase. There is also evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are mildly ill or even presymptomatic.
All this means COVID19 would be much harder to contain than say Middle East respiratory syndrome(MERS) or SARS.
BILL GATES goes on to enumerate certain steps that should be taken -
- [ ] National, State and local governments and public health agencies has to work hand in hand to slow the spread.
- [ ] Donor governments could help low and middle income countries( LMICs) prepare for the pandemic.
Finally, governments and industry has to come to an agreement during a pandemic- vaccines and antivirals can’t simply be sold to the highest bidder. They should be available and affordable for the people who are at the heart of the outbreak and in greatest need.
This 28th February article from Bill Gates comes in the backdrop of US President Trumps statement that he would prefer vaccine only for the American Citizens !
World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines on Basic Protective Measures against COVID19-
- [ ] Wash hands frequently
- [ ] Maintain social distancing- maintain at least 1 metre distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
- [ ] Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth
- [ ] Practice respiratory hygiene- like covering nose and mouth while sneezing or coughing and disposing off tissue immediately.
- [ ] Seek medical advise early - if symptomatic with fever, cough and breathing difficulty.
- [ ] Stay informed and keep away from fake news.
Protection measures - for persons who are in or recently visited ( 14 days ) areas where COVID19 is spreading -
- [ ] Stay at home if you begin to feel unwell or even mild symptoms
- [ ] If you develop fever, cough and breathing difficulty seek medical advice immediately.
Seek real information and do not fall for fake news. There is a lot of misinformation floating around in the Internet.
The website www.who.int would suffice for queries.
Some immune boosting methods including Vitamin C rich diets and ample sunlight and exercise have been cited to help curb infection spread.
The importance of Personal hygiene including hand washing and social distancing cannot be overemphasised.
The COVID19 has shown us how fragile the human species is and it is time for introspection. We have put a man on the moon and sent a probe to the Sun, but are struggling to find a cure for a viral disease affecting lives!
It is too early to talk about lessons learnt as we are right in the middle of the pandemic.
One thing that governments all over the world should think of in the middle of the biggest crisis of the millennium so far, is the amount of money that Governments spent on healthcare and social welfare.
If the human race is to survive for long - it is imperative that governments realise the importance of spending on medical research and welfare rather than dreaming of weaponising and colonising space !
Food for thought.......
RC
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