29th August 2019
Musings.......
I have been largely avoiding shaping my articles with political undertones since the General Elections.This is not for want of content or material but out of exercised restraint.
Contrary to expectations,the Indian economy is showing signs of recession. Textbook definition of recession is slowing down of growth rate in 2 consecutive months compared to the same months the previous year,which has been the case this April-May period according to official statistics. We are officially under recession and the reasons for the same are varied.
The domestic reasons include a weak structural policy and badly thought out budget on top of a lack of demand and absent liquidity in the market.
Internationally, there is an ongoing trade war between the US and China in which both countries have put taxes on their respective imports. When major economies of the world resort to irresponsible trade wars the developing countries like India suffers.
China has devalued its currency the Chinese renminbi (yuan) and the US has called it a currency manipulator.
Most of the developing economies have brought down their interest rates and in tune with the circumstances India’s central Bank - The RBI too has reduced its interest rates,the lowest since 2009.
What is needed is to revive the animal spirits of the economy, increased liquidity,boost demand and increase public spending. All this demands a prudent monetary and fiscal policy and we hope the government of our times rises up to the challenge.
Another saddening news comes out of Brazil whose right wing lead Government of Jair Bolsanaro has diluted the country’s environmental policies resulting in 80 percent increase in forest fires in the Amazon. The Amazon which is rightly called the “lungs of the earth” provides for 20 percent of the planet earths oxygen. The newly elected President recently allowed for major deforestation and developmental works within the Amazon, the after effects of which will be disastrous for our planet which is already reeling under climate change. It is imperative upon major world economies and powers to pressurise Brazil into taking actions before the Amazon is lost forever.
The recently concluded G7 meet in Biarritz, France has reiterated its commitment of saving the Amazon and has pledged 20 Million Euros. Not surprisingly Brazil’s climate change sceptic President has rejected the philanthropy. Other pressures such as stopping environmental funding from agencies of Germany and Norway seems to have limited effect. The World community should join hands before it is too late to save the Amazon.
Another incident that caught my eye is the ongoing war in Yemen. Major Portion of the country is under the control of Houthi rebels which has captured its capital Sanà The UN backed coalition Government controls less than half of the country and has the support of Saudi Arabia and The UAE.
Whatever be the geopolitics, the common public of Yemen is facing one of the deadliest humanitarian crisis the world has seen and it is to everybody’s interest that a solution is worked out. News that the UAE backed military group has turned against the coalition shows serious rift within it.
Coming to Afghanistan, The US under Trump is trying to reduce its military presence or exit altogether from Afghanistan. The Afghanistan question is a difficult one to answer because there are multiple stakeholders involved. The elected government has become a puppet and yeilds no real power. Even though elections are declared in October,no one has taken it seriously. The other major stakeholder is the Taliban which now controls more than half of Afghanistan with their base in Kandahar. The next stakeholder which has entered the scene recently is the Islamic state(IS) complicating matters even more. India in its part has turned out to be the biggest looser in the Afghanistan game as the legitimate government is losing control and a Pakistan backed Taliban is in direct talks with the US.
India which has spent millions of dollars for humanitarian and Infrastructural development of Afghanistan including building its Parliament building has lost out. It remains to be seen if Taliban backed government will be formed and US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan before Trump faces Reelection in 2020 - this being one of his prominent pre election promise.
After the ouster of Omar Al Basheer from the head of government in Sudan things have not been well in the African nation of Sudan. However recently a pact has been forged between protestors and the military junta on combined rule and subsequent civilian rule in a staged manner.
It would be great for democracy if such a pact would come through without further military coups and bloodshed. Sudan is a promising country for investment and India should see opportunity for investment in the East African country albeit political stability.
The recent Japan- South Korea spar is surprising and out of the blue. Both countries being allies of US adds to the irony. The irritant being North Korea and some contentious islands in the Japanese sea. Joint military drills between US and South Korea, and steps towards appeasement of North Korea by US and South Korea has not gone down well with Japan.
India has good trading opportunities with both nations and the stability in the region would be beneficial for all. However, we have to wait out for how will the geopolitics in the East plays out.
Being an Indian you cannot keep our Russia for long, if you are talking about International Relations as the bulwak of Indian/Nehuruvian foreign and domestic policy was Russia. Though Russia is not what it was previously with itself getting relegated below China and other European powers in terms of weightage, Russia still remains a major trade partner of India. India is dependent upon Russia for military and nuclear capabilities and there is scope for more.
The recent news that our PM will be the Chief guest for the Eastern Economic Summit in Vladivostok, Eastern Russia is good news. Greater trade relations with Russia and Indian presence in Eastern Part of Russia with Vladivostok being one of the major centres would be imperative to counter Chinese hegemony in the Far East.
The Belt and Road Initiative of China (BRI) seems to be fizzling out. With huge expectations and greater plans the BRI was a giant investment platform however not well thought out one. The economic benefits of such huge infrastructural plans came into question and China seems to have no answer. Rampant corruption within the ranks of Chinese Communist Party in terms of awarding contracts also has resulted in issues in BRI.
This has prompted China to downsize its plans and reduce expenditure. However the plan as of now seems to be in the bushes. India’s issues with BRI stemmed with its offshoot- the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The CPEC which has trade lines passing through Aksai Chin disputed territory and Gilgit Baltistan in POK which is both contested by India, is considered by India as infringement of its sovereignty.
I can go on and on but long paragraphs will not serve the purpose as I have learnt the hard way. Increasing the number of articles with shorter content could be a better option. As I write this the notification on my phone chimes with news that the Railway Minister of Pakistan has predicted an all out war with India by October- November this year.
Whatever may be the reasons for the outburst, I hope the Pakistani politician has read the news that India may review its NO FIRST STRIKE policy of Nuclear weapon use.
Food for Thought.......
RC
rohitchennithala.blogspot.com
rohitchennithala.home.blog
I have been largely avoiding shaping my articles with political undertones since the General Elections.This is not for want of content or material but out of exercised restraint.
Contrary to expectations,the Indian economy is showing signs of recession. Textbook definition of recession is slowing down of growth rate in 2 consecutive months compared to the same months the previous year,which has been the case this April-May period according to official statistics. We are officially under recession and the reasons for the same are varied.
The domestic reasons include a weak structural policy and badly thought out budget on top of a lack of demand and absent liquidity in the market.
Internationally, there is an ongoing trade war between the US and China in which both countries have put taxes on their respective imports. When major economies of the world resort to irresponsible trade wars the developing countries like India suffers.
China has devalued its currency the Chinese renminbi (yuan) and the US has called it a currency manipulator.
Most of the developing economies have brought down their interest rates and in tune with the circumstances India’s central Bank - The RBI too has reduced its interest rates,the lowest since 2009.
What is needed is to revive the animal spirits of the economy, increased liquidity,boost demand and increase public spending. All this demands a prudent monetary and fiscal policy and we hope the government of our times rises up to the challenge.
Another saddening news comes out of Brazil whose right wing lead Government of Jair Bolsanaro has diluted the country’s environmental policies resulting in 80 percent increase in forest fires in the Amazon. The Amazon which is rightly called the “lungs of the earth” provides for 20 percent of the planet earths oxygen. The newly elected President recently allowed for major deforestation and developmental works within the Amazon, the after effects of which will be disastrous for our planet which is already reeling under climate change. It is imperative upon major world economies and powers to pressurise Brazil into taking actions before the Amazon is lost forever.
The recently concluded G7 meet in Biarritz, France has reiterated its commitment of saving the Amazon and has pledged 20 Million Euros. Not surprisingly Brazil’s climate change sceptic President has rejected the philanthropy. Other pressures such as stopping environmental funding from agencies of Germany and Norway seems to have limited effect. The World community should join hands before it is too late to save the Amazon.
Another incident that caught my eye is the ongoing war in Yemen. Major Portion of the country is under the control of Houthi rebels which has captured its capital Sanà The UN backed coalition Government controls less than half of the country and has the support of Saudi Arabia and The UAE.
Whatever be the geopolitics, the common public of Yemen is facing one of the deadliest humanitarian crisis the world has seen and it is to everybody’s interest that a solution is worked out. News that the UAE backed military group has turned against the coalition shows serious rift within it.
Coming to Afghanistan, The US under Trump is trying to reduce its military presence or exit altogether from Afghanistan. The Afghanistan question is a difficult one to answer because there are multiple stakeholders involved. The elected government has become a puppet and yeilds no real power. Even though elections are declared in October,no one has taken it seriously. The other major stakeholder is the Taliban which now controls more than half of Afghanistan with their base in Kandahar. The next stakeholder which has entered the scene recently is the Islamic state(IS) complicating matters even more. India in its part has turned out to be the biggest looser in the Afghanistan game as the legitimate government is losing control and a Pakistan backed Taliban is in direct talks with the US.
India which has spent millions of dollars for humanitarian and Infrastructural development of Afghanistan including building its Parliament building has lost out. It remains to be seen if Taliban backed government will be formed and US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan before Trump faces Reelection in 2020 - this being one of his prominent pre election promise.
After the ouster of Omar Al Basheer from the head of government in Sudan things have not been well in the African nation of Sudan. However recently a pact has been forged between protestors and the military junta on combined rule and subsequent civilian rule in a staged manner.
It would be great for democracy if such a pact would come through without further military coups and bloodshed. Sudan is a promising country for investment and India should see opportunity for investment in the East African country albeit political stability.
The recent Japan- South Korea spar is surprising and out of the blue. Both countries being allies of US adds to the irony. The irritant being North Korea and some contentious islands in the Japanese sea. Joint military drills between US and South Korea, and steps towards appeasement of North Korea by US and South Korea has not gone down well with Japan.
India has good trading opportunities with both nations and the stability in the region would be beneficial for all. However, we have to wait out for how will the geopolitics in the East plays out.
Being an Indian you cannot keep our Russia for long, if you are talking about International Relations as the bulwak of Indian/Nehuruvian foreign and domestic policy was Russia. Though Russia is not what it was previously with itself getting relegated below China and other European powers in terms of weightage, Russia still remains a major trade partner of India. India is dependent upon Russia for military and nuclear capabilities and there is scope for more.
The recent news that our PM will be the Chief guest for the Eastern Economic Summit in Vladivostok, Eastern Russia is good news. Greater trade relations with Russia and Indian presence in Eastern Part of Russia with Vladivostok being one of the major centres would be imperative to counter Chinese hegemony in the Far East.
The Belt and Road Initiative of China (BRI) seems to be fizzling out. With huge expectations and greater plans the BRI was a giant investment platform however not well thought out one. The economic benefits of such huge infrastructural plans came into question and China seems to have no answer. Rampant corruption within the ranks of Chinese Communist Party in terms of awarding contracts also has resulted in issues in BRI.
This has prompted China to downsize its plans and reduce expenditure. However the plan as of now seems to be in the bushes. India’s issues with BRI stemmed with its offshoot- the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The CPEC which has trade lines passing through Aksai Chin disputed territory and Gilgit Baltistan in POK which is both contested by India, is considered by India as infringement of its sovereignty.
I can go on and on but long paragraphs will not serve the purpose as I have learnt the hard way. Increasing the number of articles with shorter content could be a better option. As I write this the notification on my phone chimes with news that the Railway Minister of Pakistan has predicted an all out war with India by October- November this year.
Whatever may be the reasons for the outburst, I hope the Pakistani politician has read the news that India may review its NO FIRST STRIKE policy of Nuclear weapon use.
Food for Thought.......
RC
rohitchennithala.blogspot.com
rohitchennithala.home.blog
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