3rd December 2018
Musings.......
Coming out of a dull weekend of sorts I feel compelled to write. After all what had started as a mere passion and me blurting out my inherent frustrations, has slowly incremented itself into my psychic, to the extent of me starting a blogging site for myself. A Sunday visit to Crosswords Bookstore was the highlight of my weekend. The amount of satisfaction that it gives, makes me worry - am I even fit for the raspy, cacophonous, ruthless and merciless world that we live in. I guess every introvert gets to face such doubts, some time or the other in their lives albeit I don't consider myself to be one.
Speaking of ruthless, my mind deviates towards news of Jamal Khashoggi's apparent assasination with fingers pointing towards MBS. Jamal Khashoghi a Saudi writer, United States resident and Washington Post columnist and ardent critic of the Saudi Kingdom, was killed inside its consulate in Turkish city of Istanbul. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman gave lot of hope when he took charge as the heir apparent, however, disappoints if such news is true and poses a threat for the Middle East region.
My worries can be confounded by the immediate support MBS received from the Trump Administration, their common contempt for Iran and the ongoing Saudi led war against Houthi rebels in already impoverished Yemen. India being hugely dependent on Iran for oil and it considering Iran as its gateway towards Central Asia and through it to Europe has lots to lose in this conflict who's roots can be traced to the Shia-Sunni clashes.
As I write my article, I get notification on my newsfeed that Qatar is to withdrawv from OPEC in January 2019. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental organisation of 15 nations which account for 44 percentage of global oil production and 81.5 percentage of the worlds proven oil reserves. This gives OPEC major influence in regulating oil prices and needless to say will definitely have an impact on India in the days to come.
Talking of needless things, Brexit comes to mind. Anything relating to Brexit or UKs future relation with the EU and trade relations with the world, is marred by confusion and hence I felt the need to mitigate confusion.
Article 50 - is the exit clause within the Lisbon treaty, the terms of which form the constitutional basis of the European Union. UK triggered the Article 50 in March 2017 after a referendum in June 2016 saw 52% of the vote deciding in favour of leaving EU membership.
BACKSTOP- A safety net provision within the withdrawal agreement which prevents a hard border between Northern Ireland, a constituent part of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state.
CANADA MODEL- UK attempting to strike up a free trade deal with the EU outside of a single market model once it has left the block. Under this model U.K. will not have to contribute to EU budget and allow free movement of people.
HARD BORDER- Due to Brexit a physical border controlled by customs authorities, police and military forces could be erected between a Northern Ireland, a constituent part of UK and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. This raises concerns on the Good Friday Peace agreement, through which free movement along border was made possible.
HARD BREXIT- A version of withdrawal from the EU, which would see the UK leave the blocks single market and customs union.
SOFT BREXIT- A version of withdrawal from the EU, which would see UK remain part of the blocks single market and customs union or both. This will see concessions on freedom of movement principle.
TRANSITION PERIOD- This will begin when the UK officially exits the block, on March 29 2019 and is scheduled to run until December 31 2020.
PEOPLES VOTE- Term coined by a pro- remain campaigners for a possible second referendum on the UK EU membership.
It is undeniably true that Brexit will have enormous Impact on India, being the third largest foreign investor in U.K.
Talking of Borders, the plight of Rohingyas in Rakhine state of Myanmar comes into mind. As the world attention focuses on the Rohingyas, and rightly so, the Myanmar army stands accused of targeting another group in Kachin. Fight between military and Kachin Independence Army ( KIA ) has intensified. At the heart of the conflict is the longstanding demand of Kachin for a genuinely federal state, wher their human rights will be protected. Whatever said and done it is the duty of people like Nobel laureate Aung Sang Sui Kyi, who's party is in power to interfere and find solution. India shares considerable amount of border with Myanmar and thousands of Rohingyan refugees are already in India, hence the need for quick solution of the problem to avoid another large scale humanitarian crisis.
Talking of crisis, France is seeing a novel protest by the " yellow vests" is slowly escalating. People taking part in demonstrations wearing yellow vests against price rice and rising cost of living is a challenge for the 18 month old Emmanual Macron administration. Such protests should alarm countries like India where fuel prices drop based on proximity to election dates.
Talking of proximity, Ukraine which is bordering Russia, has barred Russians from entering its country. This is, according to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, to prevent Russians from forming private armies in their country. Russia has retaliated by preventing Ukrainians from entering their country. Ukraine believes that after seizing Crimea through military intervention, and the eastern regions, Moscow is aiming to monopolise the Azov Sea before coming for the whole country. Porshenko has initiated martial law in 10'out of the 27 regions of Ukraine. To deescalate the conflict in Kerch Strait, Ukraine has called for Normandy format- four way talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.
India has huge economic and trade interests in Central Asia and a peaceful region is necessary for economic development of the region.
Talking of development, G20 the congregation of worlds leading economic powers met in Buenos Aries, Argentina. The outcomes of the summit included-
1) US- China ceasefire on trade war, with a goal of reaching an agreement within 90 days, which hold huge implications for India.
2) G20 communique seeks stronger financial safety net. This come in the wake of Nirav Modi, Vijay Malaya, Mehul Choski fiasco here in India.
Talking of fiascos, the COP24 climate summit kicked off two weeks of UN talks to tackle climate change in Katowice Poland. This comes three years since the landmark Paris deal to shift away from fossil fuels. World Bank has announced it is doubling funding for poor countries to $200 billion over five years (2021-2025). The bank said $50 million will be for climate adaptation, a recognition of the fact that some adverse effects of global warming cannot be avoided anymore but requires a change in practices. This include building homes that can withstand more extreme weather and find new sources of freshwater as rising seas contaminate existing supplies.
UN Environment Programme meanwhile says the voluntary contributions of nations agreed in Paris would have to be tripled if the world is to cap global warming below 2degreeC. For 1.5degreeC, it must increase fivefold. What remains to be seen is if the developed world would take the hard pill and contribute towards reducing the effects of global warming, thereby saving millions in the developed countries from imminent catastrophe. It is to be remembered that the major contributor towards climate change are the few developed nations, who's adventurism led to such a situation in the first place.
Speaking of adventurism, I have to mention the passing away
of George Bush ( Senior), who in his time reversed Saddam Hussain Invation of Kuwait prompting an era of US military adventurism in the Middle East which still continues. George Bush Senior oversaw during his presidency the fall of the Berlin Wall and USSR.
I had largely refrained from writing my reverie on a weekly basis on International events for sometime now. However, the world gives such interesting titbits now and then that it becomes irresistible to write. I am also inspired by the people liking my articles and criticising them from time to time. Some may even smirk behind me however I don't intend to stop anytime soon because as aptly put by George Orwell " If people cannot write well, they cannot think well, and if they cannot think well, others will do their thinking for them".
Food for Thought.......
RC
rohitchennithala.blogspot.com
Coming out of a dull weekend of sorts I feel compelled to write. After all what had started as a mere passion and me blurting out my inherent frustrations, has slowly incremented itself into my psychic, to the extent of me starting a blogging site for myself. A Sunday visit to Crosswords Bookstore was the highlight of my weekend. The amount of satisfaction that it gives, makes me worry - am I even fit for the raspy, cacophonous, ruthless and merciless world that we live in. I guess every introvert gets to face such doubts, some time or the other in their lives albeit I don't consider myself to be one.
Speaking of ruthless, my mind deviates towards news of Jamal Khashoggi's apparent assasination with fingers pointing towards MBS. Jamal Khashoghi a Saudi writer, United States resident and Washington Post columnist and ardent critic of the Saudi Kingdom, was killed inside its consulate in Turkish city of Istanbul. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman gave lot of hope when he took charge as the heir apparent, however, disappoints if such news is true and poses a threat for the Middle East region.
My worries can be confounded by the immediate support MBS received from the Trump Administration, their common contempt for Iran and the ongoing Saudi led war against Houthi rebels in already impoverished Yemen. India being hugely dependent on Iran for oil and it considering Iran as its gateway towards Central Asia and through it to Europe has lots to lose in this conflict who's roots can be traced to the Shia-Sunni clashes.
As I write my article, I get notification on my newsfeed that Qatar is to withdrawv from OPEC in January 2019. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental organisation of 15 nations which account for 44 percentage of global oil production and 81.5 percentage of the worlds proven oil reserves. This gives OPEC major influence in regulating oil prices and needless to say will definitely have an impact on India in the days to come.
Talking of needless things, Brexit comes to mind. Anything relating to Brexit or UKs future relation with the EU and trade relations with the world, is marred by confusion and hence I felt the need to mitigate confusion.
Article 50 - is the exit clause within the Lisbon treaty, the terms of which form the constitutional basis of the European Union. UK triggered the Article 50 in March 2017 after a referendum in June 2016 saw 52% of the vote deciding in favour of leaving EU membership.
BACKSTOP- A safety net provision within the withdrawal agreement which prevents a hard border between Northern Ireland, a constituent part of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state.
CANADA MODEL- UK attempting to strike up a free trade deal with the EU outside of a single market model once it has left the block. Under this model U.K. will not have to contribute to EU budget and allow free movement of people.
HARD BORDER- Due to Brexit a physical border controlled by customs authorities, police and military forces could be erected between a Northern Ireland, a constituent part of UK and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. This raises concerns on the Good Friday Peace agreement, through which free movement along border was made possible.
HARD BREXIT- A version of withdrawal from the EU, which would see the UK leave the blocks single market and customs union.
SOFT BREXIT- A version of withdrawal from the EU, which would see UK remain part of the blocks single market and customs union or both. This will see concessions on freedom of movement principle.
TRANSITION PERIOD- This will begin when the UK officially exits the block, on March 29 2019 and is scheduled to run until December 31 2020.
PEOPLES VOTE- Term coined by a pro- remain campaigners for a possible second referendum on the UK EU membership.
It is undeniably true that Brexit will have enormous Impact on India, being the third largest foreign investor in U.K.
Talking of Borders, the plight of Rohingyas in Rakhine state of Myanmar comes into mind. As the world attention focuses on the Rohingyas, and rightly so, the Myanmar army stands accused of targeting another group in Kachin. Fight between military and Kachin Independence Army ( KIA ) has intensified. At the heart of the conflict is the longstanding demand of Kachin for a genuinely federal state, wher their human rights will be protected. Whatever said and done it is the duty of people like Nobel laureate Aung Sang Sui Kyi, who's party is in power to interfere and find solution. India shares considerable amount of border with Myanmar and thousands of Rohingyan refugees are already in India, hence the need for quick solution of the problem to avoid another large scale humanitarian crisis.
Talking of crisis, France is seeing a novel protest by the " yellow vests" is slowly escalating. People taking part in demonstrations wearing yellow vests against price rice and rising cost of living is a challenge for the 18 month old Emmanual Macron administration. Such protests should alarm countries like India where fuel prices drop based on proximity to election dates.
Talking of proximity, Ukraine which is bordering Russia, has barred Russians from entering its country. This is, according to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, to prevent Russians from forming private armies in their country. Russia has retaliated by preventing Ukrainians from entering their country. Ukraine believes that after seizing Crimea through military intervention, and the eastern regions, Moscow is aiming to monopolise the Azov Sea before coming for the whole country. Porshenko has initiated martial law in 10'out of the 27 regions of Ukraine. To deescalate the conflict in Kerch Strait, Ukraine has called for Normandy format- four way talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.
India has huge economic and trade interests in Central Asia and a peaceful region is necessary for economic development of the region.
Talking of development, G20 the congregation of worlds leading economic powers met in Buenos Aries, Argentina. The outcomes of the summit included-
1) US- China ceasefire on trade war, with a goal of reaching an agreement within 90 days, which hold huge implications for India.
2) G20 communique seeks stronger financial safety net. This come in the wake of Nirav Modi, Vijay Malaya, Mehul Choski fiasco here in India.
Talking of fiascos, the COP24 climate summit kicked off two weeks of UN talks to tackle climate change in Katowice Poland. This comes three years since the landmark Paris deal to shift away from fossil fuels. World Bank has announced it is doubling funding for poor countries to $200 billion over five years (2021-2025). The bank said $50 million will be for climate adaptation, a recognition of the fact that some adverse effects of global warming cannot be avoided anymore but requires a change in practices. This include building homes that can withstand more extreme weather and find new sources of freshwater as rising seas contaminate existing supplies.
UN Environment Programme meanwhile says the voluntary contributions of nations agreed in Paris would have to be tripled if the world is to cap global warming below 2degreeC. For 1.5degreeC, it must increase fivefold. What remains to be seen is if the developed world would take the hard pill and contribute towards reducing the effects of global warming, thereby saving millions in the developed countries from imminent catastrophe. It is to be remembered that the major contributor towards climate change are the few developed nations, who's adventurism led to such a situation in the first place.
Speaking of adventurism, I have to mention the passing away
of George Bush ( Senior), who in his time reversed Saddam Hussain Invation of Kuwait prompting an era of US military adventurism in the Middle East which still continues. George Bush Senior oversaw during his presidency the fall of the Berlin Wall and USSR.
I had largely refrained from writing my reverie on a weekly basis on International events for sometime now. However, the world gives such interesting titbits now and then that it becomes irresistible to write. I am also inspired by the people liking my articles and criticising them from time to time. Some may even smirk behind me however I don't intend to stop anytime soon because as aptly put by George Orwell " If people cannot write well, they cannot think well, and if they cannot think well, others will do their thinking for them".
Food for Thought.......
RC
rohitchennithala.blogspot.com
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