21st August 2018

21st August 2018

Musings.......

Unprecedented is a word which aptly describes the condition of Kerala for the past week.  The Merriam Webster Dictionary says the first knows use of the word was in 1641. It goes on to describe synonyms for the word- fresh, novel, strange, unaccustomed, unfamiliar, unheard-of, unknown, and New completing the list. What Kerala experienced was in no way fresh or novel, but it was defiantly strange, unheard-of, unfamiliar, unknown and unaccustomed. The reverberations of which will be felt for months even years to come.  

The scientific explanation for KeralaFloods 2018 given by our highly reliable (pun intended) weathermen {or weatherperson as a matter of fact - don’t want to be heckled by feminists, hence the gender neutral word} is two things- 

1)The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also known as the Indian Nino, is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures In which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and colder than the eastern part of the ocean. Interesting fact is the corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean tends to cause Droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. Previous IODs were recorded in 1997-98 and 2006. Getting into more technicalities, if I may, IOD has three phases- the positive, neutral and the negative phase. What we experienced this time round would be the positive phase with droughts in parts of Indonesia and Australia whereas a negative phase IOD would bring greater precipitation in these areas. So we can confidently say that IOD along with a El Niño- La Niña phenomena affects the Monsoon in India. 

2) The second reason is a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal and Odisha triggering a monsoon deluge in Kerala.  The explanation is winds from the Western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea gushing towards low pressure in Bay of Bengal.  The winds hit their first barrier at the Western Ghats in Kerala- Tamil Nadu border ( read Sahayadri Mountains) causing rains in Kerala.  

Hence, an add on effect of IOD and low pressure over Bay of Bengal and Odisha causing incessant rains in the State of Kerala. 

Global warming and resultant climate change can be attributed to the heating up of seawater, leading to low pressure formations. 

Kerala is no stranger to heavy rainfall. We Keralites are accustomed to rainfall so much so that even the Government was late in recognising trouble. First warning signs were ignored, and all were taken by surprise when all of a sudden all the reservoirs and dams reached their upper limit with rains showing no signs of stoppage. In a knee-jerk reaction Kerala opened 35 of its 39 dams at the same time creating history and one of the worst floods of the century.  Over 300 lives were lost and loss of property to the tune of 20000 crores which is just the initial assesment. 

If such a situation could have been prevented is something to ponder over.  Government and policy makers have their task cut out. Kerala can not afford to be complacent again if caught in such a situation.  With Global Warming and climate change these sudden climatic changes would be more frequent. The safety of our dams is another issue to consider, most of them well over 100 years old built even before the British Raj.  Bridges and Roads all over the country are in dire straits. Kerala needs infrastructure development and needs it fast.  

As far as prevention of such calamities in future we should go back to the Madhav Gadgil committee report on the WesternGhats Ecological Preservation or at least its diluted form - the Kasturirangan committee report.  Serious discussions and action are the need of the hour if Kerala is serious about preventing such calamities.  Constituting further committees will do more harm than good. Rather, constructive criticism and consensus on existing reports is the way forward. All stakeholders should be taken into confidence with public support which will be ample in the aftermath of such a disaster. 

The role of social media in disaster response and management is worth mentioning. From helping to locate people to save lives, the role it played is commendable. Mischief makers with fake news served as the only blot on an otherwise clean state. 

Faith on humanity was restored if at all for a few days when once again humans became humans irrespective of race, caste, creed, rich or poor. Nature has its own ways of humbling humans. The world would be a better place to live in if we continued to show so much humanity. Kerala didn’t get bogged down under pressure.  It showed great will power and resilience. The scenes of a 99 year old lady climbing into a helicopter towards safety and youngsters helping people out of danger are scenes which brought strength for the distressed. Clubs, NGOs, youngsters, political parties, all played their part in rescue. Last but not the least, our very own neglected Fishermen saved hundreds of lives and deserves respect.  

Now we move towards rehabilitation. Philanthropists from around the world is contributing towards Flood relief even as our own Central Government turns face. Kerala will endure, we will survive - with or without central government assistance because of the millions of large hearted individuals ready to help. 

This was an opportunity for me to see disaster face to face and how humans were humbled at the hands of a superior power. The scenes at camps which I personally visited in Haripad was heart wrenching. A war like situation would be the best way to describe the situation which I saw. However in the eyes of all those men and women I saw glimpses of hope.  Yes it is this hope that sustains humanity. Civilisations have endured and humanity has come back from bigger hardships. History gives us the hope. 

I do have a few bones to pick too. Miscreants using social media platforms to spread false news, and few businessmen taking advantage of the situation by doubling prices of goods, is taking undue advantage of the situation and needs strict reprimanding. The lack of coverage in National media put journalism to shame. The notion that farther from the capital, farther the news is something really troubling. At the same time total admiration toward Malayalam news channels and the press for their relief reporting sticking to facts and avoiding advertisements. 

Takeaway point is - Return to Nature- Respect the Nature and the Nature will respect you back. In other words Environmental preservation should get precedence over Business interests. I hope policy makers sit-up and take notice

Food for Thought.......

RC